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Trading & Risk Advisory

In Defense of VaR

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Value at Risk (VaR) has been in the spotlight recently, following several dramatic market drops. The VaR methodology is regularly criticized during periods when market...

Trading & Risk Advisory

What are Historical and Implied Price Volatilities Telling Us?

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Commodity trading markets are nuanced and complex, and trading organizations need to be able to interpret all available information.  This includes industry news and market...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Is This a Good Time to Hedge Oil Prices?

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The energy industry has endured two hard shots: the pandemic and breakdown in OPEC+ supply restrictions.  The firms that succeed on the other side will be those that learn...

Trading & Risk Advisory

What Do Negative Oil Prices Mean?

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In the midst of all the personal, health, economic, and industry upheaval that we’re experiencing, we never expected to hear this: oil prices have increased over $40/barrel...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Four Components of Credit Risk Analysis

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Among commodity trading organizations, there is an unexpectedly wide variety of internal credit risk analysis processes.  Many firms measure less than is prudent given their...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Market Relationships: The Foundation for Risk Analysis

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Modeling the relationships between markets is sometimes underappreciated as a prerequisite to solid risk analysis.  Market relationships reflect linkages between markets that...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Should I Obtain the GARP ERP Certification?

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As a holder of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) Energy Risk Professional (ERP) certification, people often ask me whether they should obtain it. As with most...

Trading & Risk Advisory

How PCAOB Changes Will Influence Your Organization's Audits in the Next Five Years

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For public and private companies alike, an external audit is a normal component of operating the business. It is also integral in confirming the operational and financial...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Refinery Risk Management and VaR Modeling

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This is the third in a series of VaR blogs. The first, Value at Risk: Overview and Benefit Case, provided an introduction to Value at Risk (VaR). The second, Successful...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Successful Implementation of a VaR Solution

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An earlier VaR blog, Value at Risk (VaR): Overview and Benefit Case, provided an introduction to Value at Risk (VaR). We critiqued “industry standard” VaR definitions, reviewed...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Management and Optimization of Real Options in the Energy Supply Chain

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What are Real Options?

Understanding and optimizing real options within your business can unlock massive value, which in many cases is being overlooked or underestimated. This...

Trading & Risk Advisory

Value at Risk (VaR): Overview and Benefit Case

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The VaR Mystique

Value at Risk (VaR) is surrounded by mystique and confusion in the Commodity Trading and Risk Management industry. This confusion complicates its use, due to...